The role of changes in investors’ credit risk appetite
Market participants often cite changes in investors’ risk appetite as a possible explanation for developments in global financial markets that cannot be explained by changes of market fundamentals. Indeed, financial crises often seem to coincide with abrupt shifts in market sentiment from risk tolerance to risk avoidance. While fundamentals undoubtedly remain of significant importance, these shifts are likely to reflect the effective risk attitude as manifested through the behavior of active investors. But behavior similar to that induced by shifts in the fundamental preferences of investors over risk and return can also reflect changes in the composition of active market players or tactical trading patterns. Theoreticians like Kumar and Persaud argue that investors’ risk appetite not only changes over time, but also that these changes can be measured. If included in fundamentally based econometric models, risk appetite can lead to more accurate forecasts of market developments. Tools that track the dynamics of investors’ willingness to take on risks can lead to a better understanding of the functioning of financial markets. In particular, they can supplement the risk management of institutional investors. Sophisticated models therefore aim to distill a measure for risk appetite from a broad spectrum of sufficiently liquid assets. By taking various assets from across the global risk spectrum, a comprehensive comparison of the returns that they have offered relative to risk can be made.