The problems with risky payday classes

Friday, October 23, 2009 13:51 | Filled in credit cards, economics, estate, finances, heir, inheritace, real estate

Geopolitical risks like war and terror can create stress scenarios for all risky asset classes. The geopolitical situation has a strong impact on the risk aversion of investors. The events of September 11, 2001, provide a tragic example after which investors bought safe haven assets such as government bonds and gold at the cost of risky asset classes. Very risky and illiquid asset classes are particularly sensitive to changes in risk appetite. In times of growing risk appetite, more volatile and hence riskier assets perform well as investors become more willing to tolerate risk in exchange for higher expected returns. When risk appetite is falling, the reverse happens as risk premia rise and funds flow to safer assets. Consequently, special attention has to be paid in periods of high uncertainty. The most important indicators for risk aversion should be observed regularly. Among the most common indicators are implied volatilities and put/call ratios on equity options and options on interest rate future. The relative performance of growth and value stocks or high and low beta stocks can also help to estimate risk appetite. Gold and oil prices, too, often react quickly to changes in the geopolitical environment. Intermarket comparisons of the performance and volatility of different asset classes not only indicate changes in the riskloving attitude of investors, but also contain valuable information about the relative attractivity of certain markets. However, some of the abovementioned indicators may temporarily be distorted through demand and supply dynamics, or through a lack of liquidity.

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