June 12th, 2009
In the R&D world, when a new idea is proposed, it is standard practice to look for the fatal flaw. A fatal flaw is a condition that is certain to preclude, or that has a high likelihood of precluding, exercise of the option. Its existence in effect negates ownership of the option. That flaw can be technological; it can be in the revenue model; and it might be a health, legal, or environmental issue. In essence a plan with a fatal flaw is no more an option than a call on a worthless security, such as the stock of a defunct company. The absence of a fatal flaw does not imply business success—every business has known risks.
The converse of the situation may also be that a real option comes into being when the last fatal flaw is eliminated. In the case of Hook M Horns, our fictional brewer, lack of financing was the last fatal flaw to be overcome—a common occurrence. Here, financing hinged on customer commitments. Customer commitments hinged on production of samples. And production of samples hinged on gaining the services of the master brewer. Any failure in this chain would have been lethal to the project.
May 23rd, 2009
A third explanation for humanity’s history of rotten economic performance may be failure to understand value. Modern economic theory has conclusively shown that value cannot be created when the returns of economic endeavor fail to exceed the cost of capital. This knowledge has been derived from efficient capital markets linked by rapid communications. Under these circumstances, the cost of capital is usually measurable, and economic anomalies are quickly identified and arbitraged.
The rule applies equally to modern corporations and ancient kingdoms. It is interesting to reflect that if mastery of these rules is difficult for businesses and investors equipped with thousands of accountants, mainframe computers, and mathematiciansfor-hire, with the clarity of knowing that money is the goal, how difficult it is to run an organization, say an empire, where money is only one goal. For in the end, if an empire is not an economic success, it will fall as surely as if it were militarily weak.
April 30th, 2009
It is equally useful to examine the transformation processes by which these assets are converted to value. Consider first a hypothetical example of how important a seemingly mundane intellectual asset such as validated test procedures can be. Professor Stern, who teaches chemistry at a small college in Delaware, has synthesized and patented a new molecule, which is of a class that has previously shown biological activity as an insecticide. However, he has no clue as to how to demonstrate its efficacy or how to test for possible safety problems.
On the other hand, a firm that develops and markets pesticides, such as Acme Chemical, has been testing new chemical entities for biological activity for decades. It would be straightforward for them to test this substance on a spectrum of insect species and also to screen it for key environmental properties such as biodegradability and fish and avian toxicity. Acme scientists would be able not only to quickly quantify each property but also to place the results in the context of hundreds of other experimental and commercial materials! Their database and methods, which took decades to develop, now confer a huge advantage over any rival that might be starting from scratch. It would behoove Stern to make a deal with Acme rather than to
form his own company to commercialize this material.
In effect, Acme has invested in a transformation process for converting a new chemical entity into a product—in this case a pesticide. When combined with Stern’s property, that process has an opportunity to create value.
April 29th, 2009
Broadly speaking, transfer payments are taxes paid by one sector of a population that are transferred as income to another sector. Today, the term is synonymous with welfare—income taxes paid by the working population are transferred to the poor, the aged, and the disabled, usually to ensure a decent standard of living to all citizens. Unlike taxes paid to provide security, infrastructure, or services, no overall economic value is created by transfers.
Some of the money transferred will enter the economy as the recipients consume goods and services; but this will be offset, or more than offset, by monies not spent by taxpayers and by the transaction costs of the transfer.
A few centuries ago the most common form of transfer payment took the form of taxes transferred to royalty and aristocracy for their personal benefit and prestige! It resulted in magnificent palaces, jewel collections, and objects of art. Some of it was returned to the economy in the form of payments to craftsmen—masons, jewelers, sculptors, and painters—and thus provided employment; but most of it was amassed in unproductive assets that were static or that even incurred high maintenance costs. Efficient rulers could argue that their administrative and military skills amply justified these rewards, but in fact conspicuous waste was highly visible—and highly resented. In the West, these practices were largely swept away in a series of revolutions and replaced by governmental models that encouraged value-creating investments in industry and infrastructure.
April 28th, 2009
The strongest argument for the continuation of unprecedented prosperity is that strategic capital is certain to grow as knowledge expands and as increasing numbers of people are educated.
This fact is apparent from crude numbers. More than half of the scientists ever trained are alive today. An enormous fraction of the technical literature and of the digital content in the world’s databases has been created in the past two or three decades. If these categories of strategic capital can double in the space of a few decades, then it is very plausible that physical and financial capital will keep pace.
The prevalence of networks is also certain to build wealth—the number of nodes in the global network grows with the number of connected people, institutions, Internet domains, and telephone numbers. An algorithm beloved by communications theorists is called “Metcalfe’s Law.” It asserts that the value of a network increases as the square of the number of nodes. If so, each time the number of nodes doubles, the value of the global network will quadruple. In passing, I wonder whether I am one node or several: I have several somewhat separated professional affiliations, web sites, phone numbers, domiciles, and personal computers and at any time can be accessed through many of these. I even send e-mail to myself for a variety of practical reasons. This phenomenon suggests that the number of nodes in the network has the potential to exceed the population itself. In short, the combinatorial possibilities are practically infinite, and at any one time there will be a significant number that afford value-creating opportunities.
Networks enable the framing of new options. A larger economy (or a global economy) with more components adds value, as long as the components can connect to each other. In this sense a macroeconomy is more than the sum of the economic performance of the firms and the individuals within it; it also includes the strategic value of the potential new interactions among these members. (This observation is distinct from the more common observation that large markets, such as the United States, are advantaged by economies of scale.) Farmers in obscure valleys in the Balkans were poorly positioned to frame options, and their thinking seldom went beyond the next valley.
Stagnation was the result. With the Internet and basic literacy, they have new avenues for value creation. The third positive factor supporting continuing prosperity is the increasing sophistication of markets in managing and distributing risk. Risk and value, although incompletely understood, are nonetheless understood today with a far higher degree of conceptual sophistication and are supported by more extensive and accessible databases, than was the case even two decades ago. Both factors make value creation more predictable and reliable and less intuitive than ever before.
April 26th, 2009
The investor and second home risk multipliers are directionally the same across product type. The investor risk multipliers of 1.48 (hybrid ARM) and 2.53 (fixed rate) indicate that investor occupancy types default at a rate 48.0% and 153.0% greater than the baseline (single family). The second home cohorts default at a rate 50.0% and 29.0% less than the baseline (single family). The intuition for the lower risk multiplier of the second home cohort is as follows:
Borrowers who are unable to continue to make payments on a second home due to a financial disruption are easily able to dispose of the property without concern for their current living situation (owner occupied) or the presence of renters in the case of investor property. As a result, we believe that these homes are most often voluntarily liquidated (sold) before the event of default.
April 25th, 2009
Funding multicurrency and often fixed rate assets in a CRE CDO requires a mechanism to translate foreign currency and to hedge interest rate movements to correspond to with the single-currency, floating rate CRE CDO liability structure. Most issuers have accomplished this through the use of perfect asset swaps. Under a perfect asset swap contract, a swap counterparty would exchange all asset cash flows at a predetermined exchange rate, and accept foreign currency LIBOR indexes in exchange for the funding LIBOR benchmark. The deal would pay a portion of the asset yield to the hedge provider to take the currency risk. If the asset has little call protection, the issuer might also be required to pay an upfront amount to the hedge provider. Because asset default and prepayment are not highly correlated with currency value movements, these instruments are significantly more expensive than vanilla swaps. Rating agencies may prefer perfect asset swaps because they eliminate any market risk related to asset default or prepayment.
One alternative to the perfect asset swap is the use of multicurrency notes to match fund foreign currency assets. These instruments are less expensive and less effective in hedging most of the currency risk. One example of this structure is Glastonbury Finance plc, a sterling deal. To accommodate euro assets, the deal issued dual currency A-1 notes. Up to 35% of assets may be denominated in euros, which would be naturally hedged by a euro-denominated draw on the dual-currency notes. However, investors may be exposed to currency mismatches in the event an asset defaults or prepays. These risks are mitigated by allowing the manager to buy currency options to protect the transaction against prepayment and default risk.
April 23rd, 2009
Valuations for certain purposes are subject to additional, specific standards. In the UK the bases for valuations that are to be included in financial statements are set out in the Red Book. Valuations may also be required for other regulated purposes. These include stock market listing particulars, takeover and merger information, for collective investment schemes, unregulated property unit trusts, financial statements of pension schemes and solvency margin calculations on insurance company assets. In the overwhelming majority of cases market value is the basis of valuation that should be employed but the Red Book also contains information on the relevant codes and requirements that must be adhered to when undertaking valuations for these purposes. In particular, where a valuer’s firm has received an introductory fee or negotiated the acquisition of one or more properties for which the same client now requires a regulated purpose valuation within one year, the valuer must decline unless another firm has provided a valuation in between. Valuations for commercial secured lending are undertaken in accordance with the protocol agreed between the RICS and the British Bankers Association, which requires detailed commentary on market trends and risks and extends the general rule on disclosing conflicts to disclosure of past involvement too.
September 26th, 2008
The EURO has in comparison to the U.S. dollar, a new record high of 1.6038 U.S. dollars reached, and thus an absolute highlight of the EURO since there are marked. The euro had in April of this year once the mark of 1,60 exceeded, but turned back at 1.6019 U.S. dollars to bottom.
Experts see the renewed growth, especially with the backdrop of the emerging financial crisis in the United States. Indeed, in recent days, the mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have come under strong pressure because their financial resources to be threatened.
Due to the unstable financial situation in the U.S. are looking for investors and currency speculators safe harbors, such as the Euro, and exchange their dollar holdings into the common currency. This leads to further demands for the EURO and thus lead to a rise against the U.S. dollar.
September 26th, 2008
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